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Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?
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freyd
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Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

"The “global warming” debate is either warming up—or cooling down! After all, in the past year, there was snow in Johannesburg and Baghdad as well as paralyzing blizzards in China—and “a sharp drop in the globe's average temperature” (New York Times, Mar. 2, '08). The U.S. National Climatic Data Center reported that “many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February” (National Post, Feb. 25, '08). In just March the Ohio blizzard broke a 100-year snow record! On the other hand, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns a general increase in globally averaged temperatures over the last century due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. How so?

Ironically, global warming may be causing heavier snowfalls… But whether global warming is actually occurring—from the Scriptures, it is nevertheless clear, the Earth will eventually be man's eternal Home—and a Paradise......bible411.com/newsletters/nb200805.htm


Is 58:13,14 "If you keep your feet from breaking the Sabbath and from doing as you please on my holy day....then you will find your joy in Yahweh...." bibletoday.com, yrm.org, beholdthebeast.com, thereligionofpeace.com, http://www.v-a.com, eliyah.com,messianic-torah-truth-seeker.org,
06-19-2008 03:26 AM
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Derek
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

Hi Freyd
We should not expect a general trend towards warming to be linear, year on year. There will always be variations from year to year...there are many cycles superimposed that defy the simplistic approach.

The present year's perturbation is likely to be due to the Pacific Ocean current changes.

Yes, less sea ice in the Arctic Ocean could well cause more snow to fall. The 'motor' driving the Northern Hemisphere climate is 'tuned' differently.

If average temperatures worldwide are constant and the Sun's output starts going down as it appears to have done, the temperature will/is still higher than it would have been without the extra greenhouse gasses.
atb
Derek

freyd Wrote:
"The “global warming” debate is either warming up—or cooling down! After all, in the past year, there was snow in Johannesburg and Baghdad as well as paralyzing blizzards in China—and “a sharp drop in the globe's average temperature” (New York Times, Mar. 2, '08). The U.S. National Climatic Data Center reported that “many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February” (National Post, Feb. 25, '08). In just March the Ohio blizzard broke a 100-year snow record! On the other hand, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns a general increase in globally averaged temperatures over the last century due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. How so?

Ironically, global warming may be causing heavier snowfalls… But whether global warming is actually occurring—from the Scriptures, it is nevertheless clear, the Earth will eventually be man's eternal Home—and a Paradise......bible411.com/newsletters/nb200805.htm



We go in faith, our own great weakness feeling,
And needing more each day Thy grace to know:
Yet from our hearts a song of triumph pealing,
“We rest on Thee, and in Thy Name we go.”
06-19-2008 10:12 AM
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gogh
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

"......."This is my Son, whom I have chosen. Keep listening to him!" Luke 9:35
06-22-2008 02:33 PM
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gogh
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

Global Warming Doomsters' Theories Wrong, Says NASA Study

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/189147/2...e-date.htm

:coffeeread:


"......."This is my Son, whom I have chosen. Keep listening to him!" Luke 9:35
07-29-2011 04:56 PM
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Derek
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

Hi Gogh,
Have you read the article?
I have and I don't recognize the take in your right wing paper!

Finally, since much of the temperature variability during 2000–2010 was due to ENSO [9], we
conclude that ENSO-related temperature variations are partly radiatively forced. We hypothesize that
changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation during the El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO
cause differing changes in cloud cover, which then modulate the radiative balance of the climate
system. As seen in Figure 3(b) for the ocean-only data, the signature of radiative forcing is stronger
over the oceans than in the global average, suggesting a primarily oceanic origin.
What this might (or might not) imply regarding the ultimate causes of the El Niño and La Niña
phenomena is not relevant to our central point, though: that the presence of time varying radiative
forcing in satellite radiative flux measurements corrupts the diagnosis of radiative feedback.
[/color]




The forcing and feedback systems of Earth's climate are immensely complex...no one knows (other than God) how mans experiment with the atmosphere will end! Can't you read the uncertainty in the article?


Tell me all the worlds glaciers are advancing and there is loads of sea ice in the Arctic more than one year old.
Yes, the el Nino and la Nina events in the Pacific have caused major changes to world temperatures.

Don't listen to the right wing oil lobby propaganda, Gogh!

This article on the hyped paper on Real Climate is interesting!

“Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedback”
Filed under:

Climate Science



The hype surrounding a new paper by Roy Spencer and Danny Braswell is impressive (see for instance Fox News); unfortunately the paper itself is not. News releases and blogs on climate denier web sites have publicized the claim from the paper’s news release that “Climate models get energy balance wrong, make too hot forecasts of global warming”. The paper has been published in a journal called Remote sensing which is a fine journal for geographers, but it does not deal with atmospheric and climate science, and it is evident that this paper did not get an adequate peer review. It should not have been published.

The paper’s title “On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance” is provocative and should have raised red flags with the editors. The basic material in the paper has very basic shortcomings because no statistical significance of results, error bars or uncertainties are given either in the figures or discussed in the text. Moreover the description of methods of what was done is not sufficient to be able to replicate results. As a first step, some quick checks have been made to see whether results can be replicated and we find some points of contention.

The basic observational result seems to be similar to what we can produce but use of slightly different datasets, such as the EBAF CERES dataset, changes the results to be somewhat less in magnitude. And some parts of the results do appear to be significant. So are they replicated in climate models? Spencer and Braswell say no, but this is where attempts to replicate their results require clarification. In contrast, some model results do appear to fall well within the range of uncertainties of the observations. How can that be? For one, the observations cover a 10 year period. The models cover a hundred year period for the 20th century. The latter were detrended by Spencer but for the 20th century that should not be necessary. One could and perhaps should treat the 100 years as 10 sets of 10 years and see whether the observations match any of the ten year periods, but instead what appears to have been done is to use only the one hundred year set by itself.

We have done exactly this and the result is in the Figure. What this figure shows is the results for the observations, as in Spencer and Braswell, but with the EBAF dataset in black. Then we show results from 2 different models, one which does not replicate ENSO well (top) and one which does (second panel). Here we give the average result (red curve) for all 10 decades, plus the range of results that reflects the variations from one decade to the next. The MPI-Echam5 model replicates the observations very well. When all model results from CMIP3 are included, the bottom panel results, showing the red curve not too dis-similar from Spencer and Braswell, but with a huge range, due both to the spread among models, and also the spread due to decadal variability.

Consequently, our results suggest that there are good models and some not so good, but rather than stratifying them by climate sensitivity, one should, in this case, stratify them by ability to simulate ENSO. In the Figure, the model that replicates the observations better has high sensitivity while the other has low sensitivity. The net result is that the models agree within reasonable bounds with the observations.

To help interpret the results, Spencer uses a simple model. But the simple model used by Spencer is too simple (Einstein says that things should be made as simple as possible but not simpler): well this has gone way beyond being too simple (see for instance this post by Barry Bickmore). The model has no realistic ocean, no El Niño, and no hydrological cycle, and it was tuned to give the result it gave. Most of what goes on in the real world of significance that causes the relationship in the paper is ENSO. We have already rebutted Lindzen’s work on exactly this point. The clouds respond to ENSO, not the other way round [see: Trenberth, K. E., J. T. Fasullo, C. O'Dell, and T. Wong, 2010: Relationships between tropical sea surface temperatures and top-of-atmosphere radiation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L03702, doi:10.1029/2009GL042314.] During ENSO there is a major uptake of heat by the ocean during the La Niña phase and the heat is moved around and stored in the ocean in the tropical western Pacific, setting the stage for the next El Niño, as which point it is redistributed across the tropical Pacific. The ocean cools as the atmosphere responds with characteristic El Niño weather patterns forced from the region that influence weather patterns world wide. Ocean dynamics play a major role in moving heat around, and atmosphere-ocean interaction is a key to the ENSO cycle. None of those processes are included in the Spencer model.

Even so, the Spencer interpretation has no merit. The interannual global temperature variations were not radiatively forced, as claimed for the 2000s, and therefore cannot be used to say anything about climate sensitivity. Clouds are not a forcing of the climate system (except for the small portion related to human related aerosol effects, which have a small effect on clouds). Clouds mainly occur because of weather systems (e.g., warm air rises and produces convection, and so on); they do not cause the weather systems. Clouds may provide feedbacks on the weather systems. Spencer has made this error of confounding forcing and feedback before and it leads to a misinterpretation of his results.

The bottom line is that there is NO merit whatsoever in this paper. It turns out that Spencer and Braswell have an almost perfect title for their paper: “the misdiagnosis of surface temperature feedbacks from variations in the Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance” (leaving out the “On”).



We go in faith, our own great weakness feeling,
And needing more each day Thy grace to know:
Yet from our hearts a song of triumph pealing,
“We rest on Thee, and in Thy Name we go.”
07-29-2011 06:24 PM
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gogh
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Post: #6
RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

:coffeeread:


"......."This is my Son, whom I have chosen. Keep listening to him!" Luke 9:35
07-29-2011 08:42 PM
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Beau Wetini
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

LOL....Climate Change is for dummies.


LIVE THE KINGDOM NOW!!


07-30-2011 01:56 AM
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digging
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

I agree with the fact that the human race is causing the natural balance of the earths systems to shift and strain.

However there are some here who just want to "eat ( food grown with fossil fuel) & drink (via oil) for tommorrow the world will only die!

Digging

07-30-2011 03:17 AM
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Beau Wetini
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

digging Wrote:
I agree with the fact that the human race is causing the natural balance of the earths systems to shift and strain.

However there are some here who just want to "eat ( food grown with fossil fuel) & drink (via oil) for tommorrow the world will only die!

Digging



LOL - Oil is good.

If it wasnt good, God wouldnt have made it.


LIVE THE KINGDOM NOW!!


07-30-2011 03:57 AM
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Derek
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

What about Deadly Nightshade....very attractive berries.

Deathcap toadstool....very nourishing, I don't think!

Your just stirring the pot Beau... :)

Beau Wetini Wrote:

digging Wrote:
I agree with the fact that the human race is causing the natural balance of the earths systems to shift and strain.

However there are some here who just want to "eat ( food grown with fossil fuel) & drink (via oil) for tommorrow the world will only die!

Digging



LOL - Oil is good.

If it wasnt good, God wouldnt have made it.



We go in faith, our own great weakness feeling,
And needing more each day Thy grace to know:
Yet from our hearts a song of triumph pealing,
“We rest on Thee, and in Thy Name we go.”
07-30-2011 10:40 AM
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Interpretum
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Post: #11
RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

I think natural forces (i.e. volcanos, the Sun) have much more of an impact on "climate change" than man. The climate has always changed. The Romans used to grow grapes in Britain. Greenland was uninhabitable for a while, then got warmer (leading to it being inhabited), and vice versa.

Besides, I find it hilarious to think that those who believe the Earth has been around billions of years, is going to be in crisis because of man, who are like ants.

If aliens exist (which I doubt), who knows whether they would even notice mankind? We don't notice ants walking across the road unless we look carefully. From an external point of view, mankind are like tiny ants on the planet.

Or, to paraphrase God... the nations are like dust, or a drop in a bucket.


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07-30-2011 07:44 PM
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digging
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

Thank-you Derek,

Yes Beau is just trying to be cheeky! Funny thing with climate change.....how many people will be crying to God "save us from our mess".

Or how simular it will be to the flood of Noah, he warned people for how many years???? Oh no that's NOT real, the CLIMATE will not CHANGE that much and drown everyone! Noah you are just over reacting....

Yes there are extra factors, but to think humans are not effecting the climate is pure insane blindness! It's everything together, cutting the forests, polluting the fresh and salt waters, polluting the air these things have added up!!!

How many here who don't 'believe' humans are effecting the climate live in a city or large town 20,000+?

Digging

07-31-2011 12:45 AM
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Beau Wetini
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

LOL - temperatures are rising on every other planet in the Solar system.....I wonder how many factories, cars and fossil fuel machines those other planets have?


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07-31-2011 02:15 AM
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digging
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RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

Beau.....

Those planets don't have LIFE on them. DEAD planets have climate change happening all the time.

Our planet needs to have a very special balance which all living things helps to maintain. The life on earth is ment to keep the balance so life can continue.

You live in a city, don't you!

It's really hard to see when you are right in the heart of the problem. It's sooooo much easier to believe other wise.

It was so easy to believe black people could be slaves, because that made life so much easier for some. The same pattern with oil, it just has made life so easy, we are telling ourselves all kinds of lies so we can keep our 'slaves'.

Digging

07-31-2011 02:40 AM
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Beau Wetini
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Post: #15
RE: Global Warming: Heating Up…or Cooling Down?

digging Wrote:
Beau.....

Those planets don't have LIFE on them. DEAD planets have climate change happening all the time.

Our planet needs to have a very special balance which all living things helps to maintain. The life on earth is ment to keep the balance so life can continue.

You live in a city, don't you!

It's really hard to see when you are right in the heart of the problem. It's sooooo much easier to believe other wise.

It was so easy to believe black people could be slaves, because that made life so much easier for some. The same pattern with oil, it just has made life so easy, we are telling ourselves all kinds of lies so we can keep our 'slaves'.

Digging




LOL - so I suppose you are really happy with the elite's plans of wiping out billions of useless eaters then?

Then all the tree huggers can play AVATAR in the forest....

So basically, you are saying - before industrialisation - there were no Hurricanes, no Cyclones, no Floods, no Bushfires, no droughts, no famines, no water shortages etc....all these things only happen with man's influence.

LOL....let me know what you smoke at night....id like to have some! :D


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07-31-2011 03:29 AM
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